The power struggle in Afghanistan has entered a new and complicated phase, shaped by internal fractures and India’s expanding influence. Much like a household where every member claims leadership, Afghanistan continues to lack a unified authority capable of enforcing nationwide order. This absence of a central decision-maker has repeatedly pushed the country toward fragmentation, and today’s environment reflects the same historical pattern.
The Taliban government initially projected an image of complete control after returning to power in August 2021. However, the reality beneath the surface has always been different. Internal disagreements, tribal loyalties, and competing commanders have steadily eroded Kabul’s claim of unity. The situation in the northern and western provinces illustrates the depth of this power struggle in Afghanistan, where several field commanders openly disregard central directives. Once again, local militias are emerging, weakening even the limited order the Taliban attempted to establish.
History offers countless reminders of this disunity. At one point, influential Afghan chieftains gathered in Makkah and vowed to abandon internal conflict. Yet their promises dissolved as soon as they returned home. Tribal divisions resurfaced, proving that no external setting, however sacred, could override Afghanistan’s internal dynamics. The only consistent exception is when a foreign power invades. Under external pressure, Afghan factions temporarily unite, including warming relations with Pakistan. But once the threat fades, unity collapses and factionalism reappears.
For Pakistan, this recurring instability carries significant consequences. Islamabad hoped that the Taliban’s return would prevent Afghan soil from being used for anti-Pakistan activities. Despite repeated commitments from Kabul, cross-border militant attacks persisted. Pakistan clearly conveyed that Afghan territory could not be used for terrorism against its citizens. Yet the Taliban leadership struggled—or at times hesitated—to bring all groups under firm control. Several elements maintained ties with anti-Pakistan outfits, a situation further complicated by India’s expanding role.
After facing diplomatic setbacks in May, India accelerated its proxy network inside Afghanistan. It exploited tribal rivalries, partnered with groups beyond Taliban influence, and tapped into frustrations intensified by Pakistan’s repatriation of illegal Afghan residents. This provided fertile ground for anti-Pakistan narratives, allowing India to recast itself as a humanitarian actor while quietly reviving links with former Northern Alliance figures and exiled groups. The power struggle in Afghanistan thus became a strategic opportunity for New Delhi.
Pakistan, meanwhile, adjusted its approach with greater maturity. Recognising that security could no longer depend solely on Kabul’s assurances, Islamabad strengthened border fencing, surveillance, and movement regulations. Intelligence coordination improved, allowing quicker responses to infiltration attempts. Diplomatically, Pakistan worked with China, Iran, Russia, and Central Asian states to develop a collective framework aimed at preventing Afghanistan’s further fragmentation while limiting India’s unilateral agendas.
Politically, Pakistan maintained a consistent position: Afghanistan cannot achieve lasting stability through the dominance of a single faction. A broader dialogue among all ethnic and religious groups is essential, yet the Taliban’s reluctance has isolated them both domestically and internationally. Pakistan continues to highlight this reality, urging the need for political inclusion.
A striking contrast emerged in Kabul’s reactions to its neighbours. Iran also repatriated large numbers of illegal Afghan residents, but Afghanistan did not respond with the same hostility it showed toward Pakistan. This imbalance reveals how external actors encourage anti-Pakistan sentiment while suppressing similar reactions against others. During lengthy meetings in Doha and Istanbul, where Afghanistan’s well-wishers attempted to guide the Taliban toward constructive engagement, Indian proxies worked to derail progress. India’s actions reflect regional insecurity, while Pakistan has increasingly opted for restraint and long-term thinking.
Today, the power struggle in Afghanistan continues to resemble a household without a guardian. Every faction claims authority, creating an environment where instability spills across borders. External actors who try to exploit this chaos often become ensnared in its consequences. For Pakistan, the wise approach lies in combining firmness with foresight and strength with regional cooperation.
History makes one point clear: until Afghanistan develops a stable and uncontested central authority, lasting peace in the region will remain uncertain. Pakistan must therefore navigate this shifting terrain through vigilance, diplomacy, and strategic clarity. Unity in Afghanistan still emerges only under external pressure—and dissolves as soon as peace returns.
Muhammad Mohsin Iqbal serves as the Director General (Research) at the National Assembly Secretariat, Parliament House, Islamabad. With extensive experience in legislative research and policy analysis.
