A new report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) warns that Pakistan has suffered the most severe security fallout from the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, with terrorist violence surging sharply since 2021. The report highlights that more than 600 Pakistani security personnel were killed in 2025 alone, mainly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, in attacks largely attributed to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operating from Afghan territory.
A new report by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) warns that Pakistan has been the country most severely affected by the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in August 2021, with a sharp rise in terrorist violence placing sustained pressure on national security and regional stability.
According to the report, Pakistan has borne the brunt of militant spillover from Afghanistan, particularly due to the resurgence of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The group has regrouped on Afghan soil since 2021 and significantly intensified attacks inside Pakistan, mainly targeting security personnel in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
Over 600 Security Personnel Killed in 2025
ICG notes that militant violence has escalated sharply since 2022. In 2025 alone, more than 600 Pakistani soldiers and police officers were martyred in terrorist attacks, the majority of which Islamabad attributes to the TTP operating from across the Afghan border.
The report highlights that relations between Pakistan and the Taliban-led government in Kabul have deteriorated primarily over the Taliban’s refusal or inability to take decisive action against the TTP. While Pakistan accuses the Taliban of tolerating or indirectly supporting the group, Kabul denies the TTP’s organised presence, arguing that effective border control is impossible and that a forceful crackdown could destabilise its rule or push militants toward rival extremist factions.
Failed Talks and Rising Military Tensions
Taliban-mediated talks between Pakistan and the TTP in 2022 resulted in a short-lived ceasefire that eventually collapsed. The negotiations failed largely due to the TTP’s demand for administrative and security authority in parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa—an outcome Islamabad considers unacceptable.
Tensions escalated further in October 2025, when cross-border attacks and retaliatory strikes by both sides led to both military and civilian casualties. Although Qatar-facilitated talks later produced a ceasefire, the ICG report stresses that the underlying disputes remain unresolved.
Diplomatic Freeze and Regional Concerns
Despite the ceasefire, diplomatic relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan remain suspended. Cross-border trade has stalled and the Taliban’s expanding engagement with India has reinforced Pakistani security concerns.
The ICG warns that if militant attacks traced to Afghan territory continue, Pakistan is likely to resume military operations, raising the risk of renewed escalation and broader instability in South Asia in 2026.
UN Report Echoes Pakistan’s Position
The ICG assessment aligns with findings from a December 2025 report by the United Nations Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team, which stated that multiple terrorist organisations are operating from Afghanistan. The UN report said that member states consistently report the presence of ISIL-K, the TTP, Al Qaeda, the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM/TIP), Jamaat Ansarullah, Ittihadul Mujahideen Pakistan, and other militant groups, some of which have used Afghan territory to plan and prepare external attacks.
Together, these assessments reinforce Pakistan’s long-standing position that Afghanistan has become a key epicentre of regional terrorism, posing serious challenges to national security and regional peace.
