Balochistan is entering a period in which two themes are likely to shape its economic future: mineral development and connectivity. Reko Diq has placed the province at the centre of Pakistan’s emerging mining ambitions, while Gwadar remains central to the country’s plans for regional trade and connectivity under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
The scale of the opportunity is considerable. But behind the investment figures lies a more fundamental question: who will actually participate in Balochistan’s new economy?
The answer matters because Balochistan is not simply a resource-rich province. It is also Pakistan’s largest province by area, covering roughly 44 percent of the country’s territory, while its population was about 14.9 million according to the 2023 census. Its sparse population and difficult geography make the delivery of infrastructure and public services considerably more challenging than in Pakistan’s densely populated provinces.
These conditions make the link between investment and local participation particularly important.
Reko Diq is a useful example. The copper-gold project, located in Chagai district, is expected to become one of the world’s significant mining developments. Under the restructured ownership arrangement, Barrick Mining holds a 50 percent interest, while the Pakistani state holds the remaining 50 percent through federal and provincial entities, with Balochistan holding a 25 percent share.
For Balochistan, however, ownership is only one part of the equation.
A mining project creates opportunities beyond the mine itself. It requires engineers, geologists, technicians, transport operators, construction companies, equipment suppliers, food businesses and other services. If local workers and firms are prepared to meet these requirements, the economic impact can extend far beyond the mine site. If they are not, much of the value chain may remain outside the province.
That makes skills and local enterprise as important as the mineral deposit itself.
Balochistan’s education indicators demonstrate the scale of the challenge. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics’ 2023 census reported the province’s literacy rate at around 42 percent, considerably below the national level. Female literacy remains substantially lower. These figures are not merely educational statistics; they indicate the size of the human-capital gap that could limit local participation in future industries.
The policy response therefore needs to begin before major projects reach full production.
Technical and vocational institutions can be aligned with the skills demanded by mining, logistics, construction and energy. Universities can expand programmes in geology, engineering and environmental sciences. Procurement policies can help capable local businesses enter supply chains. Scholarships can prepare students from districts surrounding major projects for skilled employment.
Gwadar presents a similar challenge.
A port can provide connectivity, but a port alone does not create a diversified local economy. For Gwadar to generate broader economic opportunities, it needs functioning logistics networks, fisheries, tourism, processing industries, small businesses, reliable utilities and a skilled workforce.
This distinction between infrastructure development and human development is critical.
A highway can connect a community to a market, but its economic value is much greater when that community has electricity, education, internet access, credit and businesses capable of using the new connection. Similarly, a port can increase trade while its local economic impact remains limited if surrounding communities lack the skills and institutions required to participate.
CPEC should therefore be assessed not only through kilometres of roads or the value of infrastructure projects, but also through measurable local outcomes.
How many Balochistan-based workers are being trained? How many local companies are entering supply chains? How much provincial revenue is generated? How many young people receive technical qualifications linked to emerging industries? And how effectively are communities involved in decisions affecting their land, livelihoods and environment?
These are not questions against investment. They are questions about making investment more economically inclusive.
The issue is particularly important given Balochistan’s longstanding human-development challenges. Previous UNDP analysis has estimated very high levels of multidimensional poverty in the province. That estimate is based on earlier survey data and should not be presented as a current poverty rate, but it illustrates the depth of deprivation that development policy must address.
The province therefore faces a choice in how it approaches its new economic opportunities—not a choice between investment and development, but between different models of investment.
One model measures success through the arrival of capital, construction and extraction. Another asks whether those investments build skills, businesses, employment and public revenues that remain in the province.
The second model requires measurable commitments.
Major projects could publish data on local employment, local procurement, vocational training, scholarships, provincial revenues and community-development programmes. Transparent reporting would allow citizens to assess whether economic projects are creating participation rather than simply creating activity.
Reko Diq and Gwadar are consequently more than two separate projects. They are tests of whether Balochistan can convert its strategic geography and natural resources into broad-based economic opportunity.
The ultimate measure of success will not simply be how much copper is extracted or how much cargo passes through a port.
It will be whether a young person in Balochistan can realistically move from school to skills, from skills to employment, and from employment to a meaningful stake in the province’s economic future.
Author Bio
Syeda Anisa Abuzar Naqvi holds a BS in International Relations from BUITEMS and is currently pursuing an MS in International Relations. She writes on governance, development, public policy, security, and socio-economic issues in Pakistan.
